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Feb
08
2013

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Categories:

Tropical Cyclone Activity Reports for Pacific and Indian Oceans

by Glenn James

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in yellow) that has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...over the South Indian Ocean

large area of disturbed tropical weather, shown above circled in yellow, is active in the South Indian Ocean. This disturbance is located approximately 365 NM west-northwest of Cocos Island, Australia. Satellite imagery shows cloud banding along the southern periphery of a weak low level circulation center.

Part of what is giving this area a low chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone, is that it is located below an area of moderate to strong 20-30 knot (23-35 mph) vertical wind shear. In contrast to this limiting factor, there is a strong westward outflow, which is enhancing development of thunderstorm activity.

Several weather models, including the GFS, the Navy NOGAPS, and the ECMWF, are showing this system developing within 72 hours. The JTWC shows that maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots (17-23 mph). Minimum sea level pressure in this area is estimated to be running about 1005 millibars.