PDC Weather Wall

February 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 275 NM west of La Reunion Island (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 60 knots, with gusts to near 75 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng), with JTWC positions, segments, winds...in the southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) is located approximately 275 NM west of La Reunion Island. TC 13S has tracked south-southeastward, at a continued slow 06 knot forward speed over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows Felleng has shown additional weakening during the past six hours. Vertical wind shear is running 20-30 knots (23-35 mph) over this storm, which is moderate to strong. Despite this rather hostile upper level environment, Felleng is maintaining its organization quite well. The cooler sea surface temperatures up ahead will take 13S into the history books however, as it slides into the prevailing westerlies with time…taking on a mid-latitude storm character.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 13S has decreased its sustained winds from this time yesterday, to 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots (69-86 mph) at the time of this writing.

The current forecast shows a steady weakening through the next 96 hours. Felleng is forecast to continue tracking south-southeastward through the next 72 hours, then take a turn more directly southeast. The current track has this tropical cyclone in-between the east coast of Madagascar, and the small island of La Reunion…over the open ocean.

According to the latest satellite image, the heaviest rains are remaining offshore from the east coast of Madagascar again today. It appears that the heaviest precipitation is remaining to the south and east through northeast of its center. There are some showers extending west to the coast of Madagascar, although they remain very limited. There is still at least one or two spiral bands of heavy rains extending from the center of Felleng, which are moving over both La Reunion Island, as well as Mauritius.