PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 300 NM west-northwest of La Reunion Island (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 85 knots, with gusts to near 105 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...in the southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) is located approximately 300 NM west-northwest of La Reunion Island. TC 13S has tracked southwestward, at

a slower 06 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows Felleng has weakened during the past six hours as well, as deep convection has decreased…losing its central eye in the process. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 13S has decreased its sustained winds from this time yesterday, to 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots (98-121 mph) at the time of this writing. The current forecast shows a steady weakening through the next 96 hours…falling below 65 knots after 72 hours.

Felleng is forecast to continue tracking southwestward, although has dropped almost half…in forward speed since the time of this writing yesterday. It is expected to take a turn south…as it gets to its closest point to the east coast of Madagascar soon. The current track takes this tropical cyclone in-between the east coast of Madagascar…and the west coast of the small island of La Reunion. This keeps 13S over the open ocean, and away from land areas, as it continues heading south and then south-southeast.

According to the latest satellite images, the very heaviest rains are remaining offshore from the east coast of Madagascar. It appears that the heaviest precipitation is remaining to the south and east through northeast of its center. There are some showers extending west to the coast of Madagascar, although they seem limited for the time being. There is one spiral band of heavy rains extending from the center of Felleng, which is moving over both La Reunion Island, as well as Mauritius too. As this storm moves south and then south-southeast, these two islands will receive additional inclement weather conditions…while the east coast of Madagascar will see a lessening threat of heavy weather.