PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 330 NM north-northwest of La Reunion Island (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 115 knots, with gusts to near 140 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...in the southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) is located approximately 330 NM north-northwest of La Reunion Island. TC 13S has tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows Felleng has continued to strengthen and

deepen, with convective bands wrapping tightly into a 20 NM central eye. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 13S has increased its sustained winds from this time yesterday, to 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots (132-161 mph) at the time of this writing. The current forecast shows a steady strengthening through the next 24 hours…reaching 125 knots, with gusts to 150 knots (144-173 mph). This top level would be the equivalent of a major category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean! If in fact, Felleng reaches 125 knots, it would be just 5 knots (7 mph) below the fairly rare super typhoon level…of the western Pacific region.

Felleng is forecast to continue tracking south-southwestward, then take a turn south…as it gets closer to the east coast of Madagascar. The good thing here, is that the current track takes this very dangerous tropical cyclone in-between the east coast of Madagascar…and the small island of La Reunion. This keeps 13S, at least the most dangerous central part of this dynamic storm, over the open ocean. According to the latest satellite images, the very heaviest rains are remaining offshore from Madagascar, although the outskirts of this storm are bringing some locally heavy, potentially flooding precipitation to the northern and northeastern parts of that area. Mariners, including small fishing boats…all the way up through the largest vessels, should be steering clear of this incredibly dangerous cyclone. Coastal residents along eastern Madagascar should be very careful, due to the heavy pounding surf, and rip currents. La Reunion island will come under attack, as Felleng gets closer over the next few days…with the center moving by about 230 NM to the west of that island.