PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 420 NM north of La Reunion Island (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 90 knots, with gusts to near 110 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...in the southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) is located approximately 420 NM north of La Reunion Island. TC 13S has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows Felleng has significantly strengthened and deepened, with convective bands wrapping into a 22 NM central eye. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 13S has doubled its sustained winds from this time yesterday, to 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots (104-127 mph) at the time of this writing. The current forecast shows a steady strengthening through the next 48 hours…reaching 115 knots, with gusts to 140 (132-161 mph).

This is turning out to be a major tropical cyclone, which will become the equivalent of a major category 4 hurricane. Felleng is forecast to continue tracking southwestward, although gradually turning towards the south…as it gets closer to the east coast of Madagascar. 13S eventually makes a full turn poleward (Antarctica), and takes on a south-southeast path, offshore from Madagascar. Heavy rains haven’t reached Madagascar yet, although as the center of Felleng passes offshore from the east coast, flooding precipitation, locally strong and gusty winds, and high surf conditions will prevail along that east coast over the next several days. Mariners, including small fishing boats…all the way up through the largest vessels, should be moving to safe harbor. Coastal residents along eastern Madagascar should be making preparations for a major blow, with dangerous conditions on the horizon.