PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 500 NM north-northeast of La Reunion Island (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...in the southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 13S (Felleng) is located approximately 500 NM north-northeast of La Reunion Island. TC 13S has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows Felleng with a tightly wrapped center, and improving conditions for further development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 13S has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots (52-63 mph) at the time of this writing. The current forecast shows a gradual strengthening through the next 120 hours…reaching 65 knots (75 mph) within 48 hours.

Felleng is forecast to continue its tracking westward, although gradually turn towards the west-southwest and southwest…as it approaches the east coast of Madagascar. 13S eventually makes a full turn poleward (in this case Antarctica), and takes on a straight southward path offshore from Madagascar. Wind speeds are expected to peak in strength at 75 knots (86 mph) within 96 hours. Depending upon the cloud structure of this storm, at the time that it makes this pass offshore from Madagascar, will determine the associated weather along the coast then. High surf conditions will prevail along that east coast as it gets closer.