PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) remains active in the southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 515 NM west of Bora Bora (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 85 knots, with gusts to near 105 knots)

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) is located approximately 515 NM west of Bora Bora. Garry has tracked southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a Garry has had a significant increase in strength during the past 12 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), shows that TC 10P however has peaked in strength now, and will be slowly diminishing in strength from here on out.

Sustained winds are reported to be 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots (98-121 mph). As Garry tracks further south, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, and will eventually become the primary factor for its rapid decay. The forecast track keeps this system over the open ocean, well southwest of Bora Bora, and Papeete.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...over eastern Australia

An area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above) remains active over eastern Australia, located approximately 130 NM west of Rockhampton, Australia. This area is what’s left of former tropical cyclone 11P (Oswald), and has a medium chance of redeveloping over the next 24 hours. Satellite imagery shows a weakly defined low level circulation center…with the deepest convective within the southeastern quadrant. This looping radar image from Emerald, Australia, shows cloud bands moving in from the sea, over the area.

This Bureau of Meteorology, Australia satellite image, shows this area of disturbed weather over eastern Queensland. A broad area of thunderstorms is prompting moderate to heavy rainfall along parts of the coast and adjacent inland areas…between Mackay and the Sunshine coast.

The remnants of TC 11P have benefited from its relatively close proximity to the Coral Sea. If this system were able to reach open water again, regeneration of this loosely defined circulation would be possible…although the chance of this happening is slim according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Maximum sustained winds in this area were 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).