PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) remains active in the southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 330 NM east of Pago Pago, American Samoa (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 60 knots, with gusts to near 75 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 10P (Garry), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...in the southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) is located approximately 330 NM east of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Garry has tracked southeastward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a steady increase in strength during the past 12 hours. At the same time, there has been a deepening of the convection over the center of this cyclone, and improved outflow aloft. Meanwhile, the surface winds are running near 60 knots, with gusts to near 75 knots (69-86 mph).

TC Garry is forecast, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), to intensify slightly over the next 12 hours…reaching 65 knots. Thereafter, environmental conditions degrade, as vertical wind shear reaches near 40 knots (46 mph). These very strong winds aloft over the system, may dissipate 10P before 72 hours, rather than the five days that is currently predicted. The forecast track keeps this system over the open ocean, well southwest of Bora Bora, and Papeete.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...over eastern Australia

An area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above) is active over eastern Australia, located approximately 30 NM south of Townsville, Australia. This area is the remnant of former tropical cyclone 11P (Oswald), and has a medium chance of re-developing. Satellite imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center…with good convective banding features wrapping in from the Coral Sea. The radar image from Townsville, shows these bands moving in from the sea, over land to the south-southeast of that city.

This Bureau of Meteorology, Australia satellite image, shows this area of disturbed weather over eastern Queensland. A large area of thunderstorms is prompting moderate to heavy rainfall along parts of the eastern coast. A cloud band with showers and thunderstorms extends from former Oswald, through northeastern New South Wales…to the Tasman Sea.

The remnants of TC 11P have benefited from its close proximity to the Coral Sea, however the system is now beyond its closest approach to this moisture. The projected southeasterly track will take it away from this source, if it continues in this direction overland. If this system were able to reach open water, regeneration of this well defined circulation would be possible. Maximum sustained winds in this area were 20-25 knots (23-29 mph).