PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) is active in the southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 85 NM northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

Tropical cyclone 10P (Garry) is located approximately 85 NM northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Garry has tracked south-southeast at 06 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center, along with deep convection. Upper level analysis shows that there is a marginal outflow, as well as moderately strong 10-20 knot (12-23 mph) vertical wind shear. Steering currents are quite light, so that 10P is forecast to move slowly towards the east through the next 72 hours…weakening thereafter as wind shear increases aloft.

Garry is moving by offshore to the northeast of American Samoa. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows this gradually strengthening tropical cyclone shifting its course more towards the east, taking it out over open ocean…away from the small islands of AS. This system will remain over the ocean away from land through the remainder of its life. The small islands of Bora Bora, and Papeete will be out of harms way…well to the east of Garry’s track path. Mariners will need to remain a good distance from this strengthening tropical cyclone over the next five days or so.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...near the northwest coast of Australia

An area of disturbed weather (circled in red above) is now active near the northwest coast of Australia, located approximately 415 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia. Winds in the area are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29-35 mph). This tropical disturbance is moving west-southwest at near 08 knots. Satellite imagery, and local radar data in the area, indicate that a consolidating low level circulation center is active, with improved deep convective banding. The Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology shows this area skipping along the coast between Port Hedland, Karratha, and Onslow. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is giving a high chance of this area developing into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours.