PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 09S (Emang) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 525 NM southeast of Diego Garcia (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 09S (Emang), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 09S (Emang), is located about 525 NM southeast of Diego Garcia. Emang has tracked south-southwestward at a slow paced 04 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the low level circulation

center has become elongated. At the same time, nearly all the associated deep convection (thunderstorms) has dissipated, with only a small area of flaring convection in the northern half of the system. The strength of Emang has remained steady, and is forecast to remain at 35 knot sustained winds through the next 12 hours, before slowly intensifying.

09S remains in a weak steering current, thus the slow drift to the southwest. Emang will intensify slowly to a peak intensity of 65 knots through the next 120 hours, as environment conditions gradually improve through this extended forecast period. There are no land areas or islands along the projected path of this tropical cyclone, as it remains over the open waters of the South Indian Ocean…well to the south of the small island of Diego Garcia, and far east of Madagascar.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the southwest Timor Sea

A new area of disturbed weather (circled in orange above) has formed offshore of northwest Australia…more or less over the southwest Timor Sea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) fix puts this area at approximately 625 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia. This is in the same general area that former tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) formed about a week ago.

Banding features are now apparent along the northwest periphery of this disturbance. Weather models are developing this system, although are showing varying intensities and associated tracks. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots (23-29 mph). In view of the increased and deepening convection, the JTWC is giving the potential for development of a significant TC with the next 24 hours.