PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 430 NM south-southwest of Learmonth, Australia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones, over the South Indian Ocean...offshore from western Australia

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located about 430 NM south-southwest of Learmonth, Australia. Narelle has tracked southward at near 15 knots over the past six hours. Animated satellite imagery shows that this tropical system is interacting with strong westerly winds, which is helping to weakening its remaining strength greatly.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts that 08S will continue this weakening trend, undergoing an extra-tropical transition soon. Sustained wind speeds are all the way down to 35 knots (40 mph), with gusts to near 45 knots

(52 mph). The forecast track keeps Narelle off the coast of western Australia through the remainder of its life cycle. The bulk of the associated rainfall is remaining offshore from Australia.

Tropical cyclone 09S (Emang) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 500 NM southeast of Diego Garcia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 09S (Emang), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

This second tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean, Tropical cyclone 09S (Emang), is located about 500 NM southeast of Diego Garcia. Emang has tracked southwestward at a slow paced 03 knots over the past six hours. TC 09S is located within a marginal environment for development at the moment, with weak outflow aloft…and moderate 10-20 knot vertical wind shear above as well.

09S remains in a weak steering current, thus the slow drift to the southwest. Emang will intensify slowly to a peak intensity of 65 knots through the next 120 hours, under only moderately favorable environment conditions throughout the forecast period. There are no land areas or islands along the projected path of this tropical cyclone…as it remains over the open waters of the South Indian Ocean.