PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 255 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia (Strong tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 115 knots, with gusts to near 140 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located about 255 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Narelle has tracked southwest at near 08 knots over the past six hours. Animated satellite imagery shows that the system has become more symmetrical, and has wrapped tighter into a 15 NM ragged central eye.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting that 08S is peaking in strength at the time of this writing. Sustained wind speeds are 115 knots (132 mph), with gusts to near 140 knots (161 mph). The intensity of this very strong tropical cyclone (which qualifies as a major category 4 system) will gradually step down through the remainder of its life cycle…remaining over the ocean throughout.

The forecast track keeps Narelle off the coast of western Australia over the next several days. Nonetheless, it will likely be close enough to the coast, to bring high surf locally. Most of the heaviest rains and strongest winds will remain offshore, fortunately. Learmonth, Australia will find the center of Narelle moving by approximately 200 NM to the west.

Then, in about 3-4 days or so, Narelle will swing back to the southeast, closer to the coast, offshore from Perth, Australia. At that time, wind speeds are expected to be near 55 knots, with gusts to near 70 knots (63-81 mph). The winds will be less intense as 08S swings by very close to the coast, although the high surf and potentially flooding rainfall…will bring heavy weather conditions to that southwest tip of western Australia.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in orange) that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the Philippine Sea

An area of disturbed weather in the Philippine Sea (circled in orange) above, has a medium chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. This tropical disturbance is located approximately 420 NM east of Zamboanga, Philippines. Animated satellite imagery shows a broad low-level circulation center, with fragmented and disorganized convection…thunderstorm activity.

The vertical wind shear above this area is light to moderately strong, blowing in the 10-20 knot range (12-23 mph). This, coupled with favorable outflow of air aloft over the circulation center, has enhanced the associated thunderstorm activity in the vicinity. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 17-22 knots (20-25 mph). This area was being given a low chance of development yesterday, although as noted above…has now been upgraded to a medium chance today.