PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 370 NM north of Learmonth, Australia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 80 knots, with gusts to near 100 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC tropical cyclone 08S positions, segments, and winds, along with airports, world detailed coastlines and shaded relief layers...in western Australia

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located about 370 NM north of Learmonth, Australia. Narelle has tracked south-southwest at near 10 knots over the past six hours. Animated satellite imagery shows that the central convection (thunderstorms) has deepened over the circulation center. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued growth, despite the fact that there’s a northerly vertical wind shear of 20 knots aloft over this soon to be more powerful tropical cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting 08S to further intensify, reaching a peak intensity of 115 knots, with gusts to near 140 knots within 48 hours. This intensification will be supported by less wind shear above, good outflow aloft, and a still warm sea surface along its path. After 48 hours however, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures…will cause a rapid eroding of this tropical system.

The forecast track brings Narelle close to the coast of western Australia over the next 1-2 days, so that very high surf, very strong winds, and heavy flooding rainfall can be expected locally. Learmonth, Australia will find Narelle moving by just to the west, and will take a battering. Then, later in the life of 08S, towards the end of the road for Narelle, the large city of Perth will likely find gusty winds, rough surf along the coast, and potentially heavy flooding rainfall. The JTWC notes that some of the models are still showing a divergence in the track after 48 hours…so that there’s

a low confidence in the forecast at that time.