PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 525 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle), with JTWC positions, segments, winds, and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 08S (Narelle) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located about 525 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia. Narelle has tracked southwest at near 06 knots over the past six hours. Animated satellite imagery shows tightly curved, deep convective banding wrapping into a well defined low level circulation center. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued growth, as the vertical wind shear is weak to moderate…10-20 knots.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting 08S to intensify rapidly, reaching a peak intensity of 115 knots, with gusts to viagra near 140 knots within 48 hours. The forecast track brings Narelle close to the coast of western Australia, so that very high surf, very strong winds, and heavy flooding rainfall can be expected locally. The JTWC notes that some of the models are showing Narelle moving inland over western Australia…so that there is a low confidence in the forecast after 48 hours.