PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active over the Southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 260 NM south-southwest of La Reunion Island (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile), with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean, located about 260 NM south-southwest of La Reunion Island…well offshore from the southeast coast of Madagascar. Dumile has tracked southward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that the system remains well defined, with a ragged central eye, although has begun to elongate…signifying a general weakening trend.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast calls for a steady weakening over the next 36 hours, as it takes takes a sharp turn towards the southeast…over the open ocean away from Madagascar. Wind shear above (10-20 knots), and cooler sea surface temperatures along the upcoming path of Dumile, will bring this system into a extra-tropical transition after 24 hours. 07S will remain away from any land areas through the remainder of its life cycle.

Tropical cyclone 01W (Sonamu) remains active in the South China Sea…located approximately 430 NM east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 35 knots, with gusts to near 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 01W, with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the South China Sea

Tropical cyclone 01W (Sonamu) remains active in the South China Sea, located about 430 NM east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 01W has tracked westward at near 14 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that the central convection (thunderstorms) persists over the low level circulation center. TC Sonamu will continue its track across the South China Sea, although will have difficulty increasing much more in strength, due to moderate to strong vertical wind shear (20-30 knots) above.

Nonetheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) now shows that 01W has reached the tropical storm level…and will continue at that category through the next 48 hours. This will be made possible by the 82-86F degree sea surface temperatures that Sonamu will be moving over…despite the strong wind shear above. This tropical cyclone will drive across the South China Sea through the next 120 hours. The JTWC graphical track map shows 01W petering out as it approaches the east coast of Malaysia. There may be showers arriving over that area…if the system holds together through this extended period.