PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active over the Southwest Indian Ocean…located approximately 85 NM northwest of La Reunion Island (Tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 65 knots, with gusts to near 80 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile), with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean, located about 85 NM northwest of La Reunion Island…well offshore from the east coast of Madagascar. Dumile has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the central convection has weakened, and has lost its eye in the process. Nonetheless, this tropical cyclone is moving by just to the west of La Reunion Island, and is bringing heavy weather and high surf conditions to that small island.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast calls for a steady weakening after 12 hours, as it gradually takes a turn towards the southeast…over the open ocean away from Madagascar. Wind shear above, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the path of Dumile, will bring this system into a extra-tropical transition after 48 hours. 07S will remain away from any land areas through the remainder of its life cycle.

Tropical cyclone 01W is now active…located approximately 185 NM northwest of Zamboanga, Philippines (Strengthening tropical depression…sustained winds of 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 01W, with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the Philippines

Tropical cyclone 01w is active now in the Sulu Sea, located about 185 NM northwest of Zamboanga, Philippines. 01W has tracked westward at near 17 knots over the past six hours. 01W will continue its track into the South China Sea, although will have difficulty increasing in strength, due to moderate to strong vertical wind shear above. Nonetheless, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) calls for 01W to reach the tropical storm level within 24-48 hours. This will be made possible by the 82-86F degree sea surface temperatures ahead…despite the strong wind shear.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

An area of disturbed weather (circled in red above) remains active today, located approximately 760 NM east of Diego Garcia, in the south Indian Ocean. Marginal environmental conditions exist over and around this area, although sea surface temperatures are amply warm for development. Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29 to 35 mph). Thus, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to give a high chance of a significant tropical cyclone developing in the area…within the next 24 hours.