PDC Weather Wall

January 2013
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active over the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 370 NM north of La Reunion Island (Strengthening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 55 knots, with gusts to near 70 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone 07S, with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dumile) remains active in the southwest Indian Ocean, located about 370 NM north of La Reunion Island. At the same time, it is well offshore from the east coast of Madagascar. Dumile has tracked south-southwest at 14 knots over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows the central convection continues to deepen, as feeder bands wrap in tighter into the circulation center.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast calls for a steady intensification over the next 48 hours, as it gradually takes a turn towards the southeast…over the open ocean away from Madagascar. Thereafter, as 07S gets further south, it will meet increasing vertical wind shear aloft, and cooler sea surface temperatures below…bringing this system into extra-tropical transition by 120 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

An area of disturbed weather (circled in red above) is now active, located approximately 720 NM east of Diego Garcia, in the south Indian Ocean. Satellite imagery shows the low level circulation has continued to gather force over the past several hours, and is now beginning to move under deeper convection. Upper level shear will diminish, while sea surface temperatures (82-86F) are amply warm for development. Thus, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is giving a high chance of a significant tropical cyclone in the area…within the next 12-24 hours.