PDC Weather Wall

December 2012
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 05P (Freda) remains active over the southwest Pacific Ocean…located approximately 390 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia (Weakening tropical cyclone…sustained winds of 90 knots, with gusts to near 110 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, newly formed tropical cyclone 05P, with JTWC positions, segments, winds...over the southwest Pacific

Tropical cyclone 05P (Freda) remains active in the southwest Pacific, and is located about 390 NM northwest of New Caledonia. It has been tracking south-southeast over the past six hours. Satellite imagery depicts a weakening trend, with a loss of all banding features. TC 05P will continue to weaken according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), with strong vertical wind shear above, and cool sea surface temperatures below.

A general southward track is expected, followed by a shift to the southeast towards New Caledonia with time. The strength of Freda will drop back down to the tropical storm level (60 knots) as this turn occurs. The JTWC shows this system moving by just offshore to the west of New Caledonia, before veering away to the southwest over the open ocean. Residents of NC need to prepare for rising surf, strong and gusty winds, and flooding rainfall as it approaches. Freda is the second tropical cyclone of the southern hemisphere summer in the southwest Pacific. It follows Evan, which caused extensive damage and loss of life in Samoa and Fiji.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation...and an area of disturbed weather (circled in red) that has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours...in the South Indian Ocean

An area of disturbed weather (circled in red above) is now active, located approximately 665 NM north-northeast of La Reunion island in the south Indian Ocean. Dynamic weather models continue to aggressively develop this system, as vertical wind shear, which was quite strong previously…is now weakening. Surface winds in the area are estimated to be 25-30 knots (29-35 mph), with improving environmental conditions. Thus, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is giving a high chance of a significant tropical cyclone in the area.