Pacific Disaster Center Fostering Disaster Resilient Communities  

Providing Weather and Hazard Related News

Weather Wall

 

 

Dec
14
2012

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone Evan (04P) remains active in the South Pacific Ocean…located approximately 640 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji (Strengthening tropical cyclone…100 knot sustained winds – gusts to near 125 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone Evan (04P), with JTWC positions, segments, winds and error cones...over the South Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone Evan (04P), with JTWC positions, segments, and winds...over the South Pacific Ocean

Tropical cyclone Evan (04P) has moved through the Samoan Islands, and is now over the ocean just to the north of Samoa. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast shows 100 knot sustained winds, with gusts to near 125 knots. An increase in wind speeds is expected to reach 115 knot sustained winds, with gusts to near 140 knots over the next 48 hours. The forward motion slowed upon reaching Samoa, which allowed this intense storm to remain in the general area of these small islands for 12-18 hours. This in turn kept very strong gusty winds, flooding rainfall, and pounding surf effecting these islands.

Evan has ravished the area, with at least 2 deaths as of the time of this writing. Power is out in many areas, with the storm having made a huge impact on vegetation and infrastructure. Trees are down in most areas, piling up on roads…making relief efforts very difficult. In the capital, Apia, homes have been flattened, while the Vaisigano River burst its banks…washing away cars, trees, and other debris. The Tanugamanono power plant was destroyed, which means that there may not be power in the area for at least two weeks. The population of Samoa is approximately 183,000.

As this dynamic cyclone leaves the Samoan Islands behind, as it’s doing now…it’s forecast to strengthen over the warm ocean waters of this southwest Pacific region. Yesterday’s forecast had Evan moving directly over the small islands of Vanua Levu and Fiji. The most recent JTWC projected path, now shows 04P moving by to the north, northwest, and then off to the west. This is good news for those islands, although there isn’t a great distance between the storms center and those small islands.

The expected distance between Suva, Fiji, and Evan’s center point is projected to be between 135 and 230 miles. If this distance holds, it will keep the strongest winds from reaching Vanua Levu and Fiji. This distance won’t be great enough to keep windy conditions, with high surf, and potentially flooding rainfall…as a relatively close edge pass takes place on December 16-17th. Winds are expected to be still up around 100-110 knots sustained, with gusts to between 125-135 mph during this close passage offshore.

All mariners, including large ships and small boaters, and all island residents in Fiji and Vanua Lvu, and other small islands in the area, should be on very high alert. The error cones associated with Evan completely engulf both of these islands to the south, so that it wouldn’t take much of a change in course to bring the center…of this very dangerous cyclone directly back over the Fiji area.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Central North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU, HAWAII

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180:

There are no current tropical cyclones

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CPHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Latest Central Pacific Satellite Image

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Evan (04P)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
Fiji meteorology office – satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area