PDC Weather Wall

December 2012
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone Bopha (26W)…remains active over the South
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China Sea…located approximately 280 NM west of Manila, Philippines (Strengthening typhoon…110 knot sustained winds – gusts to near 135 knots // unexpectedly more than doubling in wind speed over the last 12 hours!)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, typhoon Bopha (26W), with JTWC positions, segments, winds and error cones...over the South China Sea

Typhoon Bopha (26W) made an (unexpected) dramatic comeback overnight, more than doubling its sustained wind speed from 50 knots to 110 knots, with gusts of 65 knots becoming 135 knots…all within just 12 hours! We call this rapid intensification…a most profound example in this case. If this all wasn’t enough, further intensification is expect through the next 12-24 hours. This will give Bopha sustained winds of 125 knots, with gusts to near 150 knots. This would be classified as a major category 4 tropical cyclone in other parts of the world.

Looking at the latest JTWC graphical track map, we see that Bopha is moving more or less in a northeast direction, which brings it back towards the Philippine island of Luzon. Rather than striking that large island’s west coast however, it makes a loop, and heads back to the southwest. This would be fortunate, as the Philippines have had just about enough of Bopha’s extreme lashings! The forecast shows this long lasting tropical cyclone finally beginning to weaken slowly after 24 hours, remaining over the South Indian Ocean…away from land.

Here’s morphed integrated microwave imagery from CIMSS…as Bopha spins in the South China Sea…offshore to the west of the Philippine Islands. Here’s the latest NRL satellite image of this impressive typhoon.

Tropical cyclone Claudia (03S)…remains active over the South Indian Ocean…located approximately 445 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia (Strengthening tropical storm…45 knot sustained winds – gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, tropical storm Claudia (03S), with JTWC positions, segments, winds and error cones...over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical storm Claudia (03S) remains active over the South Indian Ocean, to the south-southeast of the small island of Diego Garcia. It will track southwest a little further, and then take a plunge southward, with favorable environmental conditions to continue its growth.

The JTWC forecast calls for a gradual increase in wind speeds, reaching the typhoon level within 36 hours. Claudia will begin weakening…as it heads over cooler sea surface temperatures, by 96 hours. There are no islands in the projected path of 03S.