PDC Weather Wall

December 2012
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone Bopha (26W)…remains active over the southern Philippine Islands…located approximately 160 NM north of Zamboanga, Philippines (Weakening typhoon…85 knot sustained winds – gusts to near 105 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, typhoon Bopha (26W), with JTWC positions, segments, winds and error cones...over the southern Philippine Island

Typhoon Bopha (26W) has weakened considerably, after yesterday’s rapid intensification. It has come down from the very impressive super typhoon status (with 196 mph wind gusts!), back to a more normal typhoon today. Bopha brought severe weather to the Philippines…especially the southern and central portions of that nation. This intense typhoon slammed into the east coast of Mindanao, destroying homes, and killing more than 27 people…at last count.

This was the most powerful typhoon to hit Mindanao Island in over 20 years…coming ashore over the city of Baganga. There have been more than 57,000 people affected by this raging storm. Media reports tell of more than 56,000 people that are currently in evacuation shelters. This storm is being called “Pablo” in the Philippines, and won’t soon be forgotten!

We saw heavy pounding surf along many of the eastern coasts of the Philippines, in addition to very strong and gusty winds, and intense flooding rainfall. Bopha will continue to weaken as it crosses over the land areas of the Philippines, due to the physical terrain interactions. Despite this weakening trend, the Philippines will continue to see dangerous conditions for the populous there over the next 12 hours or more.

This still strong typhoon is over the warm waters of the southern Philippines at the time of this writing, and environmental conditions remain quite favorable. Thus, despite the friction that Bopha encountered passing over Mindanao, it remains energized and vital. As it moves into the South China Sea, it may re-intensify to some extent briefly, due to the still warm waters there.

Weak steering currents will exist in the South China Sea, and so 26W will slow down its forward motion. Environmental conditions deteriorate for this system then for the next several days. It will maintain a typhoon status into the 8th of December, although will be over the open water of the SCS. Land areas will be out of reach of this tropical cyclone, although ship traffic should be diverted around its wind and swell circulations. JTWC shows Bopha sliding back down the scale to a tropical storm classification by the 9th of this month.

Here’s morphed integrated microwave imagery from CIMSS…showing Bopha moving by very closely south of Palau, and then over the southern Philippine Islands.