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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone Bopha (26W)…is active in the Philippine Sea…
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**located approximately 630 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines (Super typhoon…140 knot sustained winds – gusts to near 170 knots!)**

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, super typhoon Bopha (26W), with JTWC positions, segments, winds and error cones...in the Philippines Sea

Super Typhoon Bopha (26W) rapidly intensified during the last 12 hours, becoming a super typhoon for the second time during its life. Looking at the latest JTWC track, 26W is quickly moving across the very warm waters of the Philippine Sea. It has peaked in strength at the time of this writing, with wind gusts all the way up to 196 mph!

Heavy pounding surf along the eastern coasts of the Philippines, along with very strong and gusty winds, and intense flooding rainfall can be expected over parts of that country soon. Super typhoon Bopha is forecast to begin weakening (slightly) just before arriving over the Philippine Islands.

Nonetheless, Mindanao Island will be slammed, no other way of looking at it. Last year tropical storm Washi made landfall in the general area where Bopha is expected to make landfall, and there were 650 deaths. Bopha is much stronger, and so there may very well be many more problems…as this super typhoon crosses that island in the southern part of the country.

Bopha will weaken as it crosses over the land areas of the Philippines, due to the physical terrain interactions. As it moves back over water, into the South China Sea, it may re-intensify to some extent. Weak steering currents will exist in the SCS, so it’s difficult to know what Bopha will do thereafter. It looks to be swinging northwest however, with the latest JTWC track taking it towards the mainland China coast with time.

Here’s morphed integrated microwave imagery from CIMSS…as Bopha moves by very closely south of Palau, and then heads directly for the southern Philippine Islands.