PDC Weather Wall

October 2012
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone Maliksi (20W) is active in the western Pacific…
located about 470 NM south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan
(Tropical storm…45 knot sustained winds)

Tropical cyclone Gaemi (21W) is active in the South China Sea…
located about 580 NM east of Hue, Vietnam (strengthening
tropical storm…55 knot sustained winds)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with JTWC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones for tropical storm Maliksi (20W) in the western Pacific

Tropical cyclone Maliksi (20W) is forecast to remain as a moderately strong tropical storm over the western Pacific, during the next 36 hours or so. Maliksi weakens rather quickly as it encounters increased wind shear above, and cooler sea surface temperatures below, moving in a northeast direction over the open ocean. The main Japanese islands will be spared strong winds from this system…as it moves by well offshore from the Tokyo metropolitan area.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones for tropical storm Gaemi (21W) in the South China Sea

Tropical cyclone Gaemi (21W) is active in the South China Sea, as a strengthening tropical storm. It is forecast by the JTWC to move south briefly…and then take a tight curve towards the west. Gaemi is under a light steering current at the moment, although as this turn westward occurs, 21W will finally speed up. The resultant path will take it towards the central Vietnamese coast later this week. It will make landfall as a weakening typhoon or strong tropical storm. There will be rough surf along the coast, with strong gusty winds, and locally heavy precipitation. The remnant circulation and moisture will move well inland to the south of Hue, Vietnam.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with a broad area of disturbed weather circled in yellow...with a low 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map