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Oct
01
2012

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone Nadine (14L) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 690 miles west of the Azores. (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds of 70 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with NHC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones for tropical storm Nadine, and an area of disturbed weather circled in orange, with a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours...in the Atlantic Ocean

Tropical storm Nadine (14L) remains active in the middle Atlantic Ocean, after having increased in strength a notch to a hurricane this past Friday into the weekend. The NHC shows this long lasting (18+ days) tropical system now having weakened back into a tropical storm this morning.  Nadine will be moving over a cooler sea surface soon, and encounter stronger upper level shearing winds too. These influences will finally put an end to its ever lasting presence in the Atlantic…likely occurring by Thursday if not sooner. The Azores may get struck with weakening tropical storm force winds, and heavy rains late Wednesday or Thursday. The NHC has Nadine finally becoming a post-tropical cyclone “again” in 96 hours.

Meanwhile, a new area of disturbed weather has formed about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical disturbance has a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone…within 48 hours or so. This area is being called Invest 96L, and may become a tropical depression by mid-week, although isn’t expected to be a problem for land areas, remaining over the open ocean.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Nadine (14L)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map