PDC Weather Wall

September 2012
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Tropical cyclone Jelawat (18W) remains active in the Philippine Sea….located approximately 390 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan (Super typhoon…sustained winds of 135 knots…gusts to 165 knots!)

Tropical cyclone Ewiniar (19W) is active in the western Pacific….located approximately 265 NM south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan (Tropical storm…sustained winds of 55 knots)

Tropical cyclone Miriam (13E) is active in the northeastern Pacific…located approximately 395 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California (Weakening tropical storm…sustained winds 40 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with JTWC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones for super typhoon Jelawat (18W) in the Philippine Sea...and tropical storm Ewiniar (19W) in the western Pacific

Tropical cyclone Jelawat (18W) remains active over the northern Philippine Sea, to the northeast of Luzon Island. This very strong category 5 super typhoon will remain offshore from Taiwan, as it jogs to the north and northeast. Although, the outer rain bands are getting close to the east coast of Taiwan at this time…as this radar image shows. If the extended forecast holds true, it will take Jelawat directly over, or very near Okinawa as a weakening category 2 typhoon. Thereafter, it will move on towards the east coast of Honshu Island, Japan, where it’s forecast by the JTWC to pass very near…or directly over the large city of Tokyo as a tropical storm.

Tropical cyclone Ewiniar (19W) also remains active in the western Pacific, tracking generally in a northeasterly direction. 19W is a tropical storm and isn’t expected to reach typhoon status. The current forecast by the JTWC shows Ewiniar peaking in strength today (at its current 55 knots), before gradually weakening over the open ocean…well to the east of Honshu Island, Japan.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with NHC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones for tropical storm Miriam (13E) in the northeast Pacific Ocean...and an area of disturbed weather, circled in red, with a high 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours

Tropical cyclone Miriam (13E) remains active in the northeastern Pacific, although barely as a tropical storm. The NHC shows this tropical cyclone weakening rapidly, as it moves over sharply cooler sea surface temperatures…as well as hostile upper level shearing winds. The expectation is that Miriam will become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tonight, with complete dissipation occurring in 3 days or less.

Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather to the southeast of Miriam, remains active about 395 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has a high 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. This tropical disturbance is close enough to the Mexican coast, that heavy rains are possible during the next several days. If this disturbance becomes more organized, and strengthens, it would become tropical depression 14E, and perhaps take on the name Norman…if it reached the tropical storm status.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

Tropical cyclone Miriam (13E)

NHC forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Pacific Disaster Center’s Global Hazards Atlas

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map