PDC Weather Wall

August 2012
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Tropical cyclone Kirk (11L) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 825 miles east of Bermuda. (Hurricane…sustained winds of 105 mph)

Tropical cyclone Leslie (12L) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 845 miles east of the Leeward Islands. (Strengthening tropical storm…sustained winds of 65 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation with NHC forecast positions, segments, winds and error cones...for Hurricane Kirk, and tropical storm Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean

Tropical depression Isaac (9L) is no longer being carried as an active tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). However, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is providing updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Isaac is bringing heavy rainfall, and the continued threat of flooding to the middle Mississippi River Valley today…then entering the Ohio River Valley this weekend. This depression is located about 25 miles northeast of Fort Smith, Arkansas, or about 100 miles south-southwest of Springfield, Missouri. Maximum sustained winds were 25 mph, with Isaac moving towards the north-northwest at 11 mph.

Isaac continues to be bring copious rainfall to a large area. A few of the larger precipitation totals include: 20.08″ at New Orleans; 15.05″ at Marion, Mississippi 13.99″ at Pascagoula; 13.27″ at Hattiesburg, 10.85″ at Gulfport; 10.39″ at Slidell, Louisiana; and 10.17″ at Biloxi, Mississippi. At the same time, Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes. As well as generating storm surges as high as 13+ feet along the Gulf coast. Rainfall of 3-5 inches is expected to continue within the rain shield associated with Isaac, with localized amounts as high as 8 inches.

Isaac is expected to remain a weak tropical depression through the next 36 hours. Thereafter, this depression will dissipate into a post-tropical/extratropical low pressure system over the Appalachian Mountains. Very heavy rains will continue to threaten the large area that Isaac is moving over, helping to address, to some degree…the ongoing drought conditions that exist currently. Unfortunately, Isaac’s arrival is occurring during the harvest season, nonetheless, these great rains will be very beneficial for crops this winter…into next years growing season. Here’s the 5-day precipitation forecast through Tuesday September 4th.

Hurricane Kirk (11L) remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean…which is the 5th hurricane of the season. Maximum winds were all the way up to 105 mph, with gusts to near 127 mph..making it a category 2 hurricane. The NHC is forecasting this storm to peak today, with a gradual decline in strength over the next 48 hours…becoming a tropical storm within 72 hours. Fortunately, Kirk will remain over open ocean throughout its life cycle, as it moves north-northeast. Cooler sea surface temperatures ahea

d will limit Kirk’s strength from here on out.

Tropical storm Leslie (12L) remains active in the tropical Atlantic. This is only the second time eight storms have formed in the month of August. It is located about 845 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph. 12L is forecast to increase into a hurricane within 24 hours…potentially reaching a category 2 classification later this weekend. Leslie will move in a generally west-northwest direction, keeping it away from the Caribbean Islands. Later in the forecast cycle, it will turn more towards the northwest, remaining at hurricane strength. There are no land areas in the projected path of this tropical cyclone, although Bermuda may see heavy weather conditions with time. It’s too far into the future to know for sure, although there is a good chance that at least high surf conditions will reach Bermuda right after the weekend, and perhaps even the east coast of the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday or so.