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Dec
14
2011

Special Weather Summary

Strengthening tropical storm 27W will be attaining typhoon status…as it brings potentially damaging winds and flooding rainfall to the central Philippine Islands

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying error cones, wind speeds, and storm track for tropical storm 27W, in addition to 3 hour accumulation of precipitation in the western Pacific Ocean

Tropical cyclone 27W will gradually strengthen into a typhoon in about 48 hours, at which point it will impact the central Philippine islands. This will bring strong and gusty winds to the coastal areas, along with dangerously high surf conditions. The interaction of this [what will then be a lower level typhoon] with the physical terrain features of the Philippines…will cause this system to weaken in strength. The major city of Manila won’t take the brunt of this typhoon, at least in terms of winds…although will likely find potentially heavy flooding rainfall.

27W, after moving through the islands, will come back over a warm body of water, the South China Sea to the west of the Philippines.  There are times when tropical cyclones can become re-invigorated when this happens, although in this case, wind speed forecasts by JTWC don’t show strengthening winds. The forecast track takes 27W into the same general area where recently expired tropical cyclone 26W was active. This would bring it a short distance offshore from the Mekong River Delta, in the far southeast part of South Vietnam. It’s too early to know what influence 27W would have on Vietnam.

Here’s the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) graphical track map

Large satellite image of the western Pacific, showing tropical storm 27W (click on the TS and it will bring it much closer)

Here’s a NOAA satellite picture of tropical storm 27W, to the east-southeast of the Philippine Islands

Here’s a close up satellite image, provided by the JTWC

Here’s the SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water in the Western Pacific, showing tropical cyclone 27W moving westward in direction towards the east coasts of the Philippine islands

NOAA Etrap precipitation 12-18 hour forecast for Tropical Storm 27W

Here’s Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared…showing tropical cyclone 27W

Tropical storm 27W GFS computer forecast model