PDC Weather Wall

October 2011
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – AM – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical cyclone 22W (Nalgae) is dissipating in the Gulf of Tonkin…located approximately 100 NM north of Hue, Vietnam (Weakening tropical depression…20 knot sustained winds) - Final Warning

PDC Global Hazard Atlas showing dissipating Tropical Depression Nalgae, with storm track, error cone, and accumulated 3 hour precipitation totals - Final Warning

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11AM PDT WED OCTOBER 5, 2011

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map – Showing the areas under investigation above

Latest eastern Pacific IR satellite image