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Feb
10
2011

Special Weather Summary

Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova, Irwin…and tropical disturbance 99E

The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a major hurricane, a weakening tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone…all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean offshore from Mexico.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas showing major hurricane Jova, tropical storm Irwin, and tropical disturbance 99E...with storm tracks, error cones, and 3 hour accumulations of rainfall in the far north eastern Pacific Ocean

Major hurricane Jova: Jova is being rated as a strong category 3 hurricane, forecast to become a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph within 12 hours. This very dangerous hurricane is located about 180 miles offshore from mainland Mexico…southwest of Manzanillo. There may be some slight weakening before Jova strikes the southwest coast, bring battering surf, storm surge, flooding rainfall, and very strong damaging winds.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Jova

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery – showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots as it approaches the Mexican coast

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova

Tropical storm Irwin: Irwin continues to be the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 15N and 117W. The current sustained winds near the center are 40 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone dropping down into the less dangerous tropical depression category. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this storm continues to head towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico. The latest advisory has the position 715 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Irwin

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery – showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin

Invest 99E:  This tropical disturbance remains active about 300 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place…given the name Kenneth.

NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area

NOAA satellite image of 99E

Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E