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Feb
07
2011

Special Weather Summary

Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones Jova and Irwin

PDC Global Hazards Atlas showing storm track, error cones, and 3 hour accumulated precipitation...with the area being referred to as Invest 99E further the east

The eastern north Pacific continues to be very active at the moment, with a hurricane, a tropical storm, and an area under investigation, with a moderate 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone…all happening within a fairly small area of the ocean.

Hurricane Irwin: Irwin is the farthest west of these three tropical systems, near 14N and 122W. The current sustained winds near the center are 92 mph, with  gusts to 115 mph. The NHC forecast has this tropical cyclone remaining at the hurricane level through the middle of the new week ahead. Rather than heading towards the west or north, as if often the case, this hurricane veers around towards the east, as it moves towards mainland Mexico, well to the south of the southern tip of Baja, California.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Irwin

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery – showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Irwin

Tropical Storm Jova: Jova is involved in a somewhat unfavorable environment for strengthening, although this is expected to change later Saturday, at which point a rapid intensification could take place. The sustained winds at the time of this writing were still in the tropical storm category, blowing 65 mph, with gusts to near 75 mph. The NHC forecast brings Jova to a hurricane by late Saturday morning. This storm is forecast to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast this coming Monday night.

NHC graphical track map

NOAA satellite image of Jova

UW-CIMSS TCTRAK / /Morphed Integrated Microwaves Imagery – showing latitude, longitude and wind speed in knots

Weather Underground computer forecast models for Jova

Invest 99E:  This tropical disturbance has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next two days. If this disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be given the number 12E, and if further development took place…given the name Kenneth.

NHC placement of this disturbance, orange circled area

NOAA satellite image of 99E

Weather Underground computer forecast models for 99E