Can Earthquakes be Predicted, Earthquake Predicting Method

Although it is understood that most earthquakes will concentrate at plate boundaries, there is no reliable method of accurately predicting the time, place, and magnitude of an earthquake. Earthquakes are difficult or impossible to predict because of their inherent randomness and near-chaotic behavior. Most current research is concerned with hazard mitigation, or minimizing the risk associated with earthquakes by assessing the combination of seismic hazard and the vulnerability of a given area. Many countries with a great deal of seismic activity have research programs based on identifying possible precursors to major earthquakes. These include the study of dilatancy, how rocks crack and expand under the increased stress associated with an earthquake. Some major earthquakes, but not all, are heralded by the occurrence of foreshocks, which can be detected by dense local monitoring networks. Even the minimal 60-second lead time some of these networks offer can allow enough time for gas mains to be shut off, and public transport systems to halt. Other instruments can measure changes in the levels of radon gas, electrical and magnetic properties, velocity changes of seismic waves, and changes in topography. Long term monitoring and examination of various sensors is required as some or all of these factors may change due to the opening of cracks prior to an earthquake.

Earthquake