PDC Updates | Jun 4, 2010
PDC AtlasNASA
Left: Three-day cumulative rainfall as displayed by PDC’s Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas. Right: This NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image, taken from NASA's Terra satellite and obtained from NASA's Earth Observatory on June 2, shows Tropical Cyclone Phet raging over the Arabian Sea, just off the coast of Oman. (Source: NASA and AFP) For current position and forecast path, see PDC’s online Atlas.

Tropical Cyclone Phet slipped over the eastern tip of Oman, packing strong and gusty winds, and delivering excessive rainfall. The physical interaction between the storm and the geography of Oman, caused a rather rapid diminishment in the wind speeds. Phet has now moved back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Oman, maintaining a strength just below what would be classified as a hurricane or typhoon. There is expected to be a gradually lowering of wind speeds through the remainder of this storms life cycle. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s warning (#17) shows sustained winds at 60 knots (69 mph), with gusts to 75 knots (86 mph). Phet will move generally eastward across the northern Arabian Sea, before making landfall very near Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday, June 6. Wind speeds will be near 45 knots (52 mph) when the tropical system moves over this large population center. The winds however won’t be the primary problem. The storm’s associated moisture will bring potentially very heavy precipitation—with major flooding likely. Winds will drop off quickly as what remains of Phet moves inland, but locally heavy rains may carry well inland over northwestern India.

According to Gulf News, “In Oman, winds were still blowing at 120 kilometers an hour, down from 180 kilometers per hour on Thursday (local time), when alert levels were raised to orange. Heavy rain… filled some usually dry riverbeds and stranded three people in the east of the Sultanate [of Oman] who were later rescued…. The Omani authorities had taken several precautionary measures prior to Phet’s arrival, evacuating hotels along the east coast and airlifting the residents of Masirah island to safer areas.”

At the time of the Gulf News report, an Omani civil defense official told an Online News Association (ONA) reporter, “There have been no human victims recorded so far.” However, a later update posted to Reuters is headlined, “Cyclone kills two, halts oil and gas in Oman.”

Seaview Beach
A Pakistani mounted policeman advises beachgoers to keep a safer distance at the popular Seaview Beach in Karachi on June 2. The country's meteorological department has issued a warning of "Very Severe" for Tropical Cyclone Phet in the Arabian Sea. (Source: AFP)
Meantime, as the coastal areas of India and Pakistan brace for the expected “normal” monsoonal storms, they have also been evacuating threatened areas and preparing for the arrival of Phet on Sunday (local time, Saturday in the Pacific). Nadeem Ahmed, Head of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Agency, released a statement in conjunction with a “very severe” rating for the expected effects of Phet on Pakistan. The statement said, the cyclone has “not dissipated to the extent we were earlier anticipating, which means it could be very dangerous when it hits Pakistan.”

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