PDC Updates | Jun 2, 2010

Tropical cyclone Phet is a very strong tropical cyclone, although it will be diminishing in strength before reaching the coast of Oman Thursday morning. As of the present warning #9, issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at 11 am HST June 2, 2010, sustained winds were at 120 knots (138 mph), with gusts to 145 knots (167 mph). This very dangerous tropical cyclone was moving towards the northwest (310 degrees), at 5 knots (6 mph). The current position of the storm was approximately 270 NM south-southeast of Muscat, Oman. The projected forecast has the system weakening to 115 knots (132 mph), with gusts of 140 knots (161 mph) at JTWC warning #10.

PDC Atlas
These two images from Consequence Assessment Tool Set (CATS) runs show how this type of modeling takes into account changes in the conditions surrounding a cyclone and in its observed movement. On the left, the CATS run of 9 p.m. June 1 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time at the Greenwich Meridian), or 1 a.m. June 2 Oman time, can be compared with the one on the right, produced roughly 24 hours later. A near miss by Tropical Cyclone Phet, has become a potentially devastating landfall.

This storm rivals 2007's tropical cyclone Gonu, which was the strongest tropical cyclone to have occurred in the Arabian Sea. As Gonu grazed the tip of Oman, it had winds of approximately 90 knots, and caused $4B in damage, with approximately 60 deaths. Phet looks to be the second storm on record to enter the Gulf of Oman, Gonu being the first. The storm threatens to unleash destruction from high winds, pounding surf and torrential rain on a location that typically receives only a few inches of rain per year. Over the weekend, Phet could approach the coast of Pakistan as a much weaker tropical cyclone, threatening the city of Karachi and other coastal communities, perhaps with heavy flooding rainfall, and gusty winds. Fifteen and a half million people live in the city of Karachi, part of the Indus River Delta region. Depending upon the nature of the expected curvature of Phet, the northwest part of India could also be soaked with heavy rainfall.

Oman Location
Oman, seen in red on this map, is located on the Arabian Peninsula, south of Iran, east of India, and west of Saudi Arabia. East Africa is in the lower left.

Unlike many nations in the Pacific or, for instance, the Gulf Coast states of the U.S., Oman and its neighbors on the Arabian Peninsula are unaccustomed to, and almost certainly much less prepared for the effects of major tropical storms. Muscat—a modern city of more than one million—is the capital of Oman, and is in the north, on the shores of the Gulf of Oman. However, the towns and villages of the southeasterly coast on the Arabian Sea, more directly in Cyclone Phet's path, are far less modern and almost certainly more vulnerable to the winds, rain, flooding and other effects of a tropical cyclone.

The only previous experience the country has had with a Tropical Cyclone is Gonu (2007), described above.

Omani authorities reported (6 a.m. Wednesday Hawaii Time) that the country's Air Force and the national airline, Oman Air, were helping to evacuate Masirah Island which may be very close to the eye of the storm as it makes landfall. The threatened area of Oman is largely undeveloped, but not uninhabited. Details of the population, infrastructure and the fragility of construction in the area are not readily available, but mud structures probably are common, and some sources indicate that mobile homes are used extensively as well. Both are home-types likely to sustain maximum damage from a major storm.

PDC will monitor, research and report again on Tropical Cyclone Phet and its effects.

For additional and related information:

  • Use PDC's Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas to follow Tropical Cyclone Phet.
  • A former resident of Masirah Island has an online photo album from 2001.
  • The World Factbook primer on Oman is a good general resource on the people and resources of Oman.
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