'Prepare! Watch! Act!' is the Message for the 2010 Hurricane Season

PDC Updates | Jun 1, 2010

This picture of Hurricane Ike from September 10, 2008, was "downlinked" by the crew of the International Space Station, flying 220 statute miles above Earth. The center of the hurricane was near 23.8 degrees north latitude and 85.3 degrees west longitude, heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The sustained winds were 80 nautical miles per hour with gusts to 100 nautical miles per hour. The winds were forecast to intensify, and they did. (Image ISS017-E-015752 by NASA)

By June 1, hurricane season is underway in all areas of the Pacific and in the Atlantic Ocean, and how good the news is depends on where you live or plan to travel.

In the Central Pacific, where the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that an "average season has four or five tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes," the outlook for 2010 "calls for a 70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season." NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center expects two to three tropical cyclones in the central Pacific during the 2010 season. An expectation of fewer cyclones may be good news, but it is not a reason to become complacent. Even if only one tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane, and it inflicts terrible damage on only one family, it will be a major disaster for you if that is your family.

"It is important to pay attention to forecasts and take each tropical system seriously," said Jim Weyman, director of NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "Last year we had a scare when Hurricane Felicia approached, but fortunately, it dissipated before hitting the [Hawaiian] islands." Weyman said this year's message is: Prepare! Watch! Act! "Now is the time to dust off those family emergency plans, continue to monitor conditions throughout the hurricane season, and take appropriate action when a hurricane threatens," he added.

This screen capture from PDC's Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas shows a cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. The green, red and orange colors are indications of predicted wind speeds. The bulbous gray area is the five-day "cone of uncertainty," the area where the storm (tracked in colored S symbols) may go.

The forecast is quite different for the Atlantic, and has the added threat posed by the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which has been jetting gas and oil into the water from nearly a mile below the sea surface since April 20 and may be sending plumes of gas and oil to the Atlantic coast of the U.S.

According to NOAA meteorologists, who released their Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday, May 27, "An 'active to extremely active' hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year." Across the Atlantic Basin, for the six-month season starting on June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, and NOAA Administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Prepare! Watch! Act! This is not just a Central Pacific motto. It applies in the Atlantic Basin, too.

"Prepare! Watch! Act!" is the Message for the 2010 Hurricane Season