PDC Updates | Sept 29, 2009

The tropical waters of the western Pacific remain very active during the last week of September. Tropical cyclone Ketsana (17W) brought extreme flooding to the Philippines, as it passed across the central part of the island chain. There was about “one month’s worth of rain that fell during just one day,” to give an idea of how unusual it was. Ketsana then moved into the South China Sea, where it picked up strength before slamming into the east coast of Vietnam. Ketsana brought strong winds and heavy flooding rains as it moved inland and lost strength in the interaction with physical terrain features.

Meanwhile, there are three remaining active tropical cyclones, 18W, 19W, and 20W in the western Pacific. 18W will be moving almost directly over Guam, with tropical storm force winds, and heavy rains…before heading towards the Philippines as a strengthening typhoon. 19W (named Parma) is moving through the gap between Palau and Yap, and then well offshore of the Philippine Islands toward Taiwan… as a strengthening typhoon. Finally, 20W is moving along to the north of Pohnpei and Chuuk, and then just to the north of Guam, and then (as currently forecast) right over Saipan… as a strengthening typhoon.

Ketsana 1
Typhoon Ketsana (17W), Tropical Storm Parma (19W) and Tropical Depressions 18W and 20W line up in the equatorial West Pacific, all streaming roughly westward, each representing some degree of threat to Pacific Island nations and Southeast Asia. (Image: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC)

By about 4 a.m. Hawaii Standard Time/10 p.m. Philippines Time on Tuesday, September 29, Typhoon Ketsana had passed through the Philippines, leaving at least 240 dead, according to Voice of America (VOA), Jakarta, Indonesia. At the time, VOA also reported: “Rescue efforts [were] still under way… in the northern Philippines as the country struggles to recover from one of the worst rainstorms ever to hit the region. Stephen Anderson is the United Nations World Food Program's country director in Manila. He compares the flooding caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana to Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the southern United States in 2005. ‘It was more rain in fact than Hurricane Katrina and, you know, up to 20 feet of water engulfed some parts of Manila, especially the low lying areas,’ he said.”

Ketsana 2
Residents wade in floodwaters caused by Typhoon Ketsana in Cainta Rizal east of Manila Sept. 27, 2009. Nearly 60 people were killed, Manila was blacked out and airline flights were suspended as a powerful typhoon battered the main Philippines island of Luzon on Saturday, disaster officials said. (Image: Erik de Castro for Reuters)

The same report (and many others at about the same time) praises an immediate response of international aid once the government of the Philippines requested assistance. Presidential spokesman Anthony Golez reportedly said that “Japan and the United States have been the first to offer assistance. The U.S. military, which already was in the country conducting counter-terrorism training, is providing helicopters, boats and troops to support rescue efforts.” Golez is also quoted as saying, “We’re all running against time. There is an indication that two storms are forming to the east of the Philippines, two tropical depressions that could turn into tropical storms or typhoons. It is too early to know if they will hit us here in Manila but if they do this would indeed be catastrophic.”

Ketsana 3
In this handout image provided by the U.S. Navy, sailors working with Joint Special Operations Task Force Philippines rescue Manila residents after flooding from Tropical Storm Ketsana destroyed homes and displaces thousands of residents Sept. 27 in Manila. (Image: Petty Officer 2nd Class William Ramsay, U.S. Navy/Getty Images)

Typhoon Ketsana departed the Philippines, and moved across the South China Sea, making landfall in central Vietnam, where it was responsible for at least 23 deaths, according to the Associated Press, and 31 deaths as reported a short time later by BBC. Fortunately, the storm did not stall over Vietnam.

The BBC described the storm as “weakening as it moves inland towards Laos and Cambodia,” adding that “officials in both countries have warned it could still cause heavy flooding.” Nonetheless, Xinhua/China View reported that 8 people in Cambodia died and many more were injured as Ketsana moved into the country’s Sandan District around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, local time; Monday at 11 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time.

As the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos begin to recover from Typhoon Ketsana, they must also brace for no fewer than three additional cyclones, 18W, 19W and 20W. As of 2 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time, September 29, 19W had been named Parma, the other storms had not yet reached the stage at which they would be given names. The forecast tracks for these new storms were still relatively uncertain, but the most recently proposed track can be followed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center imagery links (under the storm numbers at the top of this article) or using PDC’s Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas.

To follow the news and progress of the Tropical Cyclones mentioned here, use these links:

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