PDC Updates | May 7, 2008

PDC’s original meteorological assessment of Cyclone Nargis and the Center’s initial report, including storm track map, are available at on this website.

It is not surprising that the estimated death-toll from Tropical Cyclone Nargis is continuing to rise given the intensity of the storm, population density along its path, and lack of adequate preparations on the ground. Figure below, taken from the PDC’s Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas, shows population density along the storm path, where over 7 million people are estimated to reside in the coastal areas and other major population centers impacted by the devastating storm.

Nargis Track

On May 1, several hours after Tropical Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Myanmar, also known as Burma, the BBC was reporting that, “three people have died and the number of casualties is likely to increase as the situation becomes clearer.” Nearly six days later, the situation is becoming clearer, despite the Myanmar government’s unwillingness to allow most international disaster assessment specialists and aid workers to enter the country. Estimates vary, but the London Times Online, dated May 7, reports, “Every day, the extent of the destruction caused by Cyclone Nargis has been revised upwards, from alarming to grim to disastrous—and yesterday it became clear that this is not just a local, but an historic catastrophe. Foreign aid workers in Rangoon [Yangon, the former capital] have concluded that as many as 50,000 people died in last Saturday’s cyclone, and two to three million are homeless.”

The highest death-toll estimate being published by the established media quotes Shari Villarosa, the U.S. chargé d’affairs to Rangoon, Burma, who told The Wall Street Journal and other publications, “The death toll from the cyclone in Myanmar could hit 100,000.” She described the situation in the isolated country as “increasingly horrendous.”

While some blame lack of early warning for the disaster, evidence suggests that many meteorological organizations—including Indian Meteorological Department and Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii, to name a few—had correctly identified the potential risks of the storm in advance of its landfall. According to a spokesman for the Indian Meteorological Department, warnings of the storm’s approach have gone unnoticed. “Forty-eight hours before Nargis struck, we indicated its point of crossing, its severity and all related issues to Burmese agencies,” he said, as reported in the Times Online. Since Nargis passed through the low-lying southern districts of the country, the government has refused aid and assistance from the U.S. and most Western countries while allowing some food and drinking water into the country. Even before the cyclone died down as it crossed out of Burma, the Times reported, a U.N. representative in Rangoon, Chris Kaye, “was pressing the Government to receive a humanitarian team trained to make rapid judgments about the needs of survivors. Yesterday [Tuesday, May 6], permission had still not been granted.”

Thailand, an economic partner of Burma/Myanmar, was the first country allowed to bring in food. A few other countries and non-governmental organizations have been permitted to make air drops of food and water, but, as reported by Reuters, “Many blame [the lack of adequate response on] the junta, which has admitted it is struggling to cope, but which still appears reluctant to open its doors to a full-scale international relief effort in the hardest-hit areas.”

Buddhist Monks Burmese Soldiers
Above left: Buddhist monks help to clear the streets in Yangon (Rangoon). Other monks ran shelters in their monasteries (Image: AP) Right: Burmese soldiers unload a cargo plane bringing food and medicine from Thailand, the first foreign aid to be permitted entry to the devastated country. (Image: Reuters)

“We’re looking at 50,000 dead and millions of homeless,” Andrew Kirkwood, country director of Save The Children, a British charity, told The Times. “I’d characterize it as unprecedented in the history of Burma and on an order of magnitude with the effect of the tsunami on individual countries.”
Line Up
People line up with buckets to receive clean water in Yangon on Monday, three days after Tropical Cyclone Nargis struck the city. (Image: Will Baxter/World Picture Network)

Food supplies, safe water, basic shelter and medicines are needed, according to various statements by foreigners who have reported from the devastated areas, and tens of millions of dollars in aid have been pledged. However, according to CBC News (Canada), “Relief workers are facing obstacles, including delays in getting visas, in their effort to aid cyclone-ravaged Burma.”
Please refer to the links below for the latest information on this developing situation and other tropical cyclones:
Date Latest Updates
Past news Stories will be found on many news services, including Fox News and CBS.
Ongoing Tracking information from PDC’s Natural Hazards Atlas and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Ongoing Disaster briefs from Reuters AlertNet.
Ongoing Daily reporting from the Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance.
Reports The stories referenced above:

GLIDE number assigned for this event: TC-2008-000057-MMR.

This activation of the International Charter “Space and Major Disasters” is Call No. 203.