The Hurricane Season in Hawaii Begins June 1
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the hurricane season in the Central Pacific, including Hawaii, runs from June 1 through the end of November. The season began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific.
PDC Senior Weather Specialist Glenn James assesses the season this way, “Both the central and eastern Pacific basins are expected to have fewer than the average number of tropical cyclones this season, which is good news for the Hawaiian Islands. The 2008 hurricane season is forecast to exhibit what is called a Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, neither cooler nor warmer than average. This means a slightly reduced number of hurricanes expected to form. Typically, during the La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle, the Pacific Ocean has cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, inhibiting the number and intensity of storms in most cases. During the El Nino phase on the other hand, seawater temperatures are warmer than normal, promoting more frequent and dynamic storms.” He quickly adds however: “What we all need to remember is that despite the smaller expected numbers during this hurricane season, all it would take is one major hurricane impacting any part of the island chain to disrupt services, damage homes, businesses and infrastructure, and cause hardship to families.”
In the weeks leading up to the start of the hurricane season each year, Hawaii State Civil Defense coordinates and conducts Makani Pahili, a statewide hurricane response exercise that tests the readiness of services at all levels. Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) is a regular participant in Makani Pahili, supporting various organizations involved in disaster response.
This year, support started on May 12 when PDC participated in the four-day simulation exercise conducted by Joint Task Force-Homeland Defense (JTF-HD), for which PDC prepared damage assessment products. Then, state and federal agencies conducted their annual Makani Pahili exercise, May 19–23, and PDC provided alert notification, automated mapping, system support, and damage assessment products. First responders, health care services, weather offices and the military collaborate on this exercise each year. The exercises help agencies refine their ability to work together, and often point out issues to be dealt with before a real cyclone appears. Also, new techniques to be worked into the response scenario are tested during Makani Pahili.
In order to simulate a worst case scenario for communications failure, for example, this year planners tested the applicability of radio communications. To this end, at a meeting of Maui Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD), PDC invited Tom Worthington of the Maui Amateur Radio Club to participate in the hurricane “dry-run.” Worthington, also known to amateur radio operators as “KH7CC in Kula,” set up an operational center in the parking lot of PDC. In the end, Worthington deemed the exercise a success, pointing out that he now knows what additional work needs to be done to give amateur radio operators the opportunity to provide the best support to emergency managers during an event. He volunteered to work with stakeholders to improve members’ participation in disaster response.
Even with all the emergency service providers prepared and exercised, and with a lighter than usual hurricane season predicted, preparedness is everything. A single hurricane—perhaps the only one to threaten Hawaii in a given year—can be a disaster. Last year, in mid-August, Hurricane Flossie weakened just enough that it was not a major disaster for the Big Island of Hawaii. Had the storm strengthened instead on August 14, the entire state of Hawaii would have been dealing with just the kind of disaster Makani Pahili envisions each year, what might be called “a worst case scenario.” When a potentially dangerous storm enters the Central Pacific, you can watch its progress using the Hawaii edition of PDC’s Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas, and see bulletins associated with the storm (and other meteorological events) in PDC’s Weather and Hazards Messages.
Preparedness of individuals, households and communities is as important as the preparedness of service organizations. Your safety and the safety of your family depends on how you prepare. Confirm your own preparedness for severe weather now by checking your emergency plan and your family’s disaster survival kit against the recommendation on PDC’s website. County Civil Defense Agencies also have special resources available, and the County of Maui has a special website of locally relevant links to information.
